Dear Friends,

Happy New Year times two! We are between the start of the Gregorian calendar (January 1) and New Year’s Day in the lunisolar calendar (the lunar new year begins January 29, 2025) – and we wish you double the joy, good health, abundance, and peace in 2025, the Year of the Snake.

This year marks the 35th anniversary of the founding of the 1990 Institute. For three and a half decades, the 1990 Institute has been dedicated to broadening understanding of contemporary China and U.S.-China relations through education programs; in addition, we promote a better understanding of Asian Americans. We are one of the few nonprofits supporting the movement to include greater exposure of Asian American history in secondary school education.

With increased tensions between the U.S. and China and the rollout of Asian American studies in many states, we anticipate programs from the 1990 Institute to be as relevant and necessary as ever in elucidating the complexities of U.S.-China relations and how they often ripple and impact the ways Asian Americans are viewed and treated. In honor of our anniversary, we humbly ask for your generous and continued support of our work.

Please follow or subscribe to our social media accounts if you haven’t yet (links are at the bottom of this email) and refer your friends and colleagues to subscribe to our newsletters to keep up-to-date on the latest programs and events.

Scroll down to Spotlight for a recap of all our work. We are always happy to hear feedback. Please reach us at contact@1990institute.org.

China’s growing influence on the world of trade

By Denise Yiran Zheng
 

Trade is once again a top story in the news as President-elect Donald Trump has prioritized new tariffs and vowed to hit China with an "additional 10% tariff, above any additional tariffs." Higher tariffs would lead to higher prices for Americans, such as a likely instant rise in toy prices as nearly 80% of toys in the United States are manufactured in China. Tariffs can have greater negative effects of supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and a shrinking economy. The European Union (EU) is also increasing tariffs and in October 2024 approved tariffs on China’s electric vehicles. 

However, tariffs may no longer be an effective trade tool for stopping China’s outreach. As of 2024, China is leading globally in 37 out of 44 technologies, notably ahead of the U.S. in clean-tech manufacturing (China’s share of global production capacity is now above 80% for 11 essential clean-tech technologies, from solar wafers to an array of lithium-ion battery components). Remarkably, China overtook Japan for the first time as the world’s largest car exporter. New energy vehicles (NEVs), lithium batteries, and solar panels make up China’s "new trio" in international trade.  

Meanwhile, China is investing in emerging markets – Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa – although sometimes in an unequal relationship (with controversies such as debts). The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a development plan launched in 2013 to extend China’s geopolitical and economic influence, and 151 countries have signed up. In comparison with China’s exports to traditional markets like Europe, Japan, and the U.S., which grew by 4.2% in the first three quarters of 2024, China’s exports to two emerging markets — the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and Latin America — grew by 12.3% and 13.7%, respectively (according to Sixth Tone, part of Shanghai United Media Group). Similarly, in Africa, most nations, particularly South Africa, trade more with China than with the U.S. 

Trade in goods among BRICS+ (an organization made up of 10 countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, plus the five countries that joined in January 2024, which are Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE) has significantly surpassed trade between BRICS+ and G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the U.S.), indicating a greater interdependence among BRICS+ economies. This is significant given that the BRICS+ countries represent nearly half of the world's population, 28 percent of the world's economic output, and 47 percent of global crude oil production. Recently, China has further secured its role as a trade leader by announcing zero-tariff treatment for the over 40 least-developed countries with which it maintains diplomatic ties.

Although the U.S. maintains a trade lead in Western Europe, within Asia, most countries trade more with China than with the U.S. Notably, economic ties between Southeast Asia and China are deepening. When asked to choose between China and the U.S. in 2023, respondents from ASEAN countries chose the U.S. (61.1%) over China (38.9%). However, this flipped in 2024, with China (50.5%) having the edge over the U.S. (49.5%).

China's growing influence in global trade, the rise of BRICS+ nations, and the continuing growth of ASEAN highlight the shift in the international order as developing countries increasingly come together to shape a more multipolar world.

Thank you to our 2024 Teachers Workshop invited speakers and moderators.
Top (L-R): Margaret Yee, Neil Ruiz, Jeff Yang, Ziyao Tian, Susan Thornton, Neysun Mahboubi.
Bottom (L-R): Clay Dube, Feng Wang, Susan Shirk, Madeline Hsu, Vivian Louie, Hua-Yu Sebastian Cherng.

Curated News

'It was destiny': How Jimmy Carter embraced China and changed history | BBC  Establishing formal ties with China was among Carter's more remarkable legacies. Under Carter, China was granted "most favored nation" trade status, boosting its economy and creating jobs. More: Jimmy Carter remembered for launching 1st Asian Pacific American Heritage Week (see our short video about the 1979 origins of what is now Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month). We are pleased to work with the Carter Center on our annual college essay contest.

U.S. universities warn foreign students on Trump immigration crackdown | BBC  U.S. universities have been emailing international students and staff advising them to return to campus before Trump takes office in January, amid concerns over his plans for mass deportations. Students from Asia, particularly China, are feeling "uncertainty" about the future of U.S.-China relations.

What is birthright citizenship and could Trump end it? | PBS News  Trump has promised to end birthright citizenship as soon as he gets into office to make good on campaign promises aiming to restrict immigration. A key case in the history of birthright citizenship came in 1898 when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Wong Kim Ark, born in San Francisco to Chinese immigrants, was a U.S. citizen because he was born in the States. Learn more about this decision and other laws that started with Asian American trailblazers.

Undocumented Chinese men say they're baffled by Trump's reported plans to deport them first | NBC News  Undocumented Chinese immigrants who are deemed to be of military age will be among the first groups targeted. But, many who fled their homeland because of political persecution or for better economic opportunities reject the notion of being a threat to the U.S. as absurd.

Rep. Grace Meng to lead congressional Asian caucus, replacing longtime chair Judy Chu | NBC News  Meng, New York’s first Asian American member of Congress, takes over the role from Chu, a California Democrat who led the caucus for the past 13 years.

What is neijuan, and why is China worried about it? | The Guardian  The country’s current predicament – slowing economic growth, a falling birth rate, a meager social safety net, increasing isolation on the world stage – is often expressed through buzzwords. Neijuan, or “involution,” is a term used to describe the feeling of diminishing returns.

World Bank raises China's GDP forecast for 2024, 2025 | CNBC  The world’s second-biggest economy has struggled this year, mainly due to a property crisis and tepid domestic demand. An expected hike in U.S. tariffs on its goods may also affect growth.

Musk and Ramaswamy are sparking a debate over the H-1B visa. Here's what to know about the visa. | CBS News  An online spat between factions of Trump's supporters over immigration and the tech industry involves the H-1B visa, which brings in thousands of foreign engineers and other skilled workers each year from India, China, and other nations.

Colorado man allegedly attacked reporter after yelling 'This is Trump's America now’ | NBC News  A man was arrested and faces a bias crime charge for allegedly choking journalist Ja'Ronn Alex, who is a Pacific Islander.

The year of newly minted Indian American GOP stars | NBC News  Indian Americans, making up 2% of the population, are perhaps the most well-represented minority in the Trump administration this cycle. Some find that surprising.

Carving history: Junior New Jersey senator discovers late Hawaiʻi’s Senator Inouye’s name on bottom of desk drawer | Maui Now  Kim, the child of Korean immigrants, said it was “powerful” that out of 100 desks on the U.S. Senate floor, he was given the one that had been occupied by Sen. Inouye, one of his heroes. Read a short bio of Daniel Inouye on New Asian American Voices.

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